Tech stocks trade at ludicrous prices, earnings change views, bricks and mortar are dead, and a new economic system is booming. The inevitable had to appear. 2008 Global Crisis: There were warnings of weak credit standards, indicating that the housing market is showing the usual signs of insanity and complex derivatives at stake. Another predictable miracle.
We now take a case of the current catastrophe on the
national spot exchange.
A spot trade that represents contracts forward. There is no
knob to adjust.
Interest accrual of 14-15% versus the prevailing hobby cost
of 8%. Is it stable or not?
Brokers lending money without purchasing or checking the
necessary security. Is this a good business exercise?
Attractive brokers clients with the promise of safe and
secure investments. The promotion has not disappeared now?
Investors making payments to brokers without obtaining the
required collateral. Greed of buyers.
All entries listed above are for informational purposes
only. Wasn't this a predictable miracle?
So, the main question is: what prevents us from seeing these
predictable surprises? There are five basic behavioral biases that hinder us.
Optimism. Everyone is too constructive about the deal
and the profit it brings. There is no concept of analyzing the risks associated
with such high borrowing costs.
The illusion for control: the idea that we can
influence the end results of uncontrolled events. Change, agents, and customers
have been affected by this bias.
Self-Serve Addiction: Interpret the data and act
according to approaches that support our passions. Commerce needs volume, brokers
need companies, and clients need higher interest rates. The general opinion
eluded them all.
Instant gratification is based on an open-minded approach in
the short term. All too often, we find that results that occur later tend to
have far fewer choices the further we move towards our destination. "Eat,
drink and have fun, because the next day we might die."
Inattention and blindness - don't expect to look at
what you are not looking for. Brokers and traders have fallen into the trap of
all the information and noise and forgot to follow the big picture.
When many people are making a lot of money, it is unlikely
that they will back down and take into account the obvious shortcomings of
their movements.
"If something can't go on all the time, it won't."
This is a very revealing phrase. If the markets seem too precise to be true,
they probably are. Learning to heed this simple reality will save you a lot of
heartache when your birthday is over.
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